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NASCAR Numbers Game: 6 Amazing Stats for Kentucky

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David Smith crunches the numbers for the Quaker State 400
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<p> David Smith crunches the numbers and finds the key NASCAR stats for the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway.</p>

Unlike some of the repaved racetracks with similar sample sizes, the two races that took place in 2011 and 2012 at Kentucky Speedway showed us usable insight aplenty. Going into the facility’s third NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race, we have an idea of who is really good, who is underrated and who adjusts to the track better than anyone over the course of a race.

Being able to distinguish the good drivers at a certain track from the bad makes focusing on the good a fun part of watching the race. Because of the small sample size, there is still an aura of mystery surrounding the soft intermediate track, which provides the best of both worlds for NASCAR fans.

One of the top story lines rolling into the weekend is that of defending race winner Brad Keselowski, who appears, superficially at least, to be perpetually down a cylinder of late. Is his “slump” to be believed? And could Kentucky provide a shot at righting his wayward ship? This week’s set of numbers indicates that a lot of good might be coming his direction in short order.


7.25/21.25  Keselowski has seen a 14-position drop in his average finish in his split from the first eight races of the 2013 season (7.25) to the second eight races (21.25).

On the surface, it looks like Keselowski and the No. 2 Penske Racing team have had a rough go of the season-to-date’s back half. From a results standpoint, that’s the case, but of those eight races that comprise the 21.25-place average finish, he led in five of them. Right off the bat, it’s clear that his finishes haven’t been totally indicative of his runs. His results aren’t the only misleading number, though. Any knock on his current point standing might also be unfair.


9th Keselowski is currently ninth in the point standings, 119 markers out of first place.

I suppose ninth looks bad for the reigning champion, but is he really struggling? Consider this: he has never ranked higher in the point standings after 16 races than he does at this very moment. At this time last year, he was 10th in points going into the 17th race. In 2011, he was 22nd and he ultimately made the Chase. Reason to panic? I think not.

From a probability standpoint, Keselowski has a 50.59 percent chance of making the Chase, which is actually better than it sounds. It is the fifth-highest probability among the 24 potential playoff teams remaining.


9.625 Keselowski ranks second in Production in Equal Equipment Rating (PEER) at Kentucky with a 9.625 rating.

He, like the rest of the series, has only competed in two Kentucky Cup races, but the track has treated him well — he finished seventh in 2011 and won last year — and provides a welcome site for a driver and team looking for a turnaround. He might get it; he has led at least 25 percent of the race in both of his outings in the Bluegrass State.


45.5%  Kyle Busch has led 45.5 percent of the total laps completed in Kentucky’s two Cup Series races.

One of Keselowski’s potential foils is Busch, who ranks first in Kentucky PEER with a 10.000 rating and captured the victory in the inaugural race. While Busch is clearly spectacular on the 1.5-mile track, he’ll need some breaks to fall his way in order for the team-dependent “W” to become a reality. Since Toyota Racing Development has dialed back Joe Gibbs Racing’s horsepower in favor of long-lasting engine performance, the easy victories that came for Busch in California and Texas have transformed into finishes of sixth and fourth at horsepower-hungry tracks Pocono and Michigan. Since pure speed won’t win by itself anymore, can Busch’s No. 18 team also out-smart his Kentucky competition?
 

4.5  Jimmie Johnson’s two-race average finish of 4.5 is second only to Keselowski.

Thought you might be given a reprieve from tracks at which Johnson is a contender? Think again. Even though Kentucky is on his “yet to win” list, Johnson is wonderfully adept there, with finishes of third and sixth and the third-best PEER (6.000) in the series.


+54.5%  Driving for two different teams in 2011 and 2012, Kasey Kahne has gained a total of 20 positions in the final 10 percent of both Kentucky races, for a two-race position retainment difference of plus-54.5 percent.

What does this tell us about the duo of Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis? That it seems they understand how to adapt to the track as the race comes to a close. This helped the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team earn a runner-up finish last season. Assuming their late-race wizardry might also work when translated to the Gen-6 car, Kahne is a driver that shouldn’t be slept on this weekend.

 


For PEER and other metrics with which you may be unfamiliar, I refer you to my glossary of terms on MotorsportsAnalytics.com.

David Smith is the founder of Motorsports Analytics LLC and the creator of NASCAR statistics for projections, analysis and scouting. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA.

4.5  Jimmie Johnson’s two-race average finish of 4.5 is second only to Keselowski.

Thought you might be given a reprieve from tracks at which Johnson is a contender? Think again. Even though Kentucky is on his “yet to win” list, Johnson is wonderfully adept there, with finishes of third and sixth and the third-best PEER (6.000) in the series.


+54.5%  Driving for two different teams in 2011 and 2012, Kasey Kahne has gained a total of 20 positions in the final 10 percent of both Kentucky races, for a two-race position retainment difference of plus-54.5 percent.

What does this tell us about the duo of Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis? That it seems they understand how to adapt to the track as the race comes to a close. This helped the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team earn a runner-up finish last season. Assuming their late-race wizardry might also work when translated to the Gen-6 car, Kahne is a driver that shouldn’t be slept on this weekend.

 


For PEER and other metrics with which you may be unfamiliar, I refer you to my glossary of terms on MotorsportsAnalytics.com.

David Smith is the founder of Motorsports Analytics LLC and the creator of NASCAR statistics for projections, analysis and scouting. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA.

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